A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
